Analytics provider Glassnode reports that current on-chain indicators suggest that the Bitcoin bull market may enter its later stages.
In his March 22nd Week on the chain On-chain analytics provider Glassnode reportedly saw a decline in the number of Bitcoin whales, although the number of wallets holding 1 BTC or less since March 2018 has been steadily accumulating.
“The ongoing accumulation of smallholders shows willingness to HODL through volatility, with the trend unbroken from mid-2018 to the chaos of 2020,” the report said.
Whale addresses with more than 100 BTC were relatively flat in comparison. The group currently holds 62.6% of the supply – an increase of just 0.87% over the past 12 months.
Relying on the Reserve Risk metric, which is used to assess the confidence of long-term owners in relation to the price of Bitcoin, Glassnode claims that there is currently a BTC asset transfer going on from long-term owners to new buyers.
The report states that bull markets generally follow a similar wealth-transfer path across three distinct phases that can be used to gauge what stage the current cycle is at. Peak Hodl phases are turning points at which the largest share of long-term holders or LTH lies, own coins are profitable.
“Similar to the reserve risk metric, these studies suggest that conditions are similar to the second half or later stages of a bull market. There remains a larger relative share of supply still held by LTHs who have only spent 9% since the assumed peak HODL point. “
Glassnode isn’t the only one speculating that the end of the bull season is imminent. The Chinese mining pool BTC.TOP CEO Jiang Zhuoer speculates that the bull market could be over by September.
Speaking to local media on March 21, he pointed to a general economic recovery amid the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines and a likely decline in interest in crypto assets if the recent trend of big companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy to move to Bitcoin Adding to their treasury reserves is no longer a likely catalyst for market reversal.
Investment manager Timothy Peterson also noted the recent decline in whales, stating, “Such movements are often but not always associated with bear markets.” Peterson speculated that the price of Bitcoin could fall to $ 25,000.