Bitcoin price (BTC) is down $ 2,000 from yesterday’s high when Coinbase Global (COIN) went live on Nasdaq.
The price movement terrifyingly mimics a fractal look back from the introduction of the CME futures, which peaked in late 2017 and kicked off the bear market for cryptocurrencies. Is this just a crypto winter PTSD or is a launch of this magnitude the perfect sell for the news event?
Then and Now: CME Futures versus Coinbase Global Debut On Nasdaq
Back to 2017. Few then knew what a cryptocurrency was and were surprised when something called Bitcoin took over the mainstream media, eventually reaching prices of $ 20,000 per coin.
This year’s FOMO storm was driven by a variety of factors. BTC holders would get BCH if the hard fork took place, the halving was in the past, and well-known speculative platforms began to launch Bitcoin-based futures contracts.
Related reading | Coinbase COIN debuts on a bloody Bitcoin, but the bullish structure remains
The first to get involved was the CBOE, but the bigger deal and the one that’s still traded today is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, also known as the CME. The only problem was that his debut was right at the top of the bull market.
Unfortunately for the current bull run, the same price action is back with a nearly flawless fractal. A cycle top signal occurred at the same time.
An initial plunge, followed by a controlled sideways period before peaking around launch | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin Price Fractal could indicate that a bear market is brewing
Things in the crypto market are very different now from what many would argue that things are changing. However, the attitude “this time is different” is seen as one of the biggest mistakes in investing.
However, anything is possible with a transcendent technology like Bitcoin. However, this also applies to a scenario where the top is reached and which is triggered by a “Sell the News” event in the same way as the debut of CME futures.
Related reading | The bearish bitcoin chart bulls definitely don’t want to see it
Granted, CME was the most dominant institutionally-focused platform that allowed short positions in Bitcoin, and Coinbase does nothing of the sort. However, it could cause speculative capital that was once in Bitcoin to flow into COIN and the sudden plethora of companies and products offering crypto exposure without actually owning it.
Aside from the much larger initial impulse and correction, the curve has been the same | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
But could it be enough to create a bear market? After CME’s big crypto debut, Bitcoin fell 84%. A similar decline, typical of assets that have lost their parabolic curve, would bring the top cryptocurrency back below $ 10,000.
Even if a crash does occur, cops still have the Elliott wave theory to stick to. The peak of 2019, which also happened around the launch of Bakkt and the launch of Facebook Libra – two more are selling the news events – would have worked as wave one in five.
The wave of corrections to the bottom of Black Thursday ended wave two, and wave three may end now. According to the study, wave four should never return in wave one, which means that as long as Bitcoin never falls below $ 14,000, the bull market is intact, even with a sell-off of up to 70%.
The drop to Black Thursday lows was about as sharp and the corrections during that bull run have been small. Is this the tip, a fix, or none of the above?
Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com