Data from Glassnode shows that the most recent Bitcoin crash was the largest in history in US dollars at $ 2.56 billion. The “Corona crash” of March 2020 was the largest to date at 1.38 billion US dollars.
While 13% gains brought welcome relief yesterday, there is still uncertainty. The question everyone is asking is whether we are still in a bull market.
Source: @WClementeIII on Twitter.com
The feeling remains raw
The events of the past fourteen days have shown that Bitcoin is not immune to FUD or, as some suspect, market manipulation. Holding during this time was a painful experience for most. The biggest fear, however, is that last Wednesday’s crash signaled the end of the bull run.
There is still some debate about whether or not this is the case. From a mood standpoint, a reading of 22 on the Fear and Greed Index shows that perplexed nerves are still filled with extreme fear.
This is a significant improvement from yesterday’s 10 level. But to say the market remains cautious would be an understatement.
The Fear and Greed Index measures emotions and feelings to represent them on a scale from 0 to 100. 0 stands for extreme fear, while 100 stands for extreme greed.
A look at the Bitcoin daily chart reveals that BTC is currently below the 200-day moving average, suggesting that bears still have the upper hand despite yesterday’s relief rally. A close above the 200-day moving average is needed to allay fears that the bull market is over.
BTC is trying to build on yesterday’s profits and work its way above the 200-day moving average. However, until that happens from a technical point of view, it is too early to say with conviction whether the bull cycle will remain intact.
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
What’s next for Bitcoin?
That hasn’t stopped a flood of analysts from voicing their views on the matter. Fundstrat Global Advisors’ founder Tom Lee said volatility is the nature of Bitcoin. He’s sticking to his pre-crash price prediction of $ 100,000 by the end of the year.
“I think Bitcoin is very volatile. That is the nature of it, but that is what creates the reward for people.
Even with Bitcoin in the box now, I still think it could finish over $ 100,000 in the year. “
In an interview hosted by Scott Melker, PlanB tried to reassure viewers by saying that its Stock-to-Flow (S2F) and Stock-to-Flow X (S2FX) models suggest the bull market is intact.
According to his analysis, Bitcoin is on track to hit $ 100,000 per S2F model or $ 288,000 per S2FX model.
“I’m very data-driven, so I don’t do it, but I read the data and look at my stock-to-flow models, the stock-to-flow model and the stock-to-flow X model, and both models actually show that we are certainly not at the end of the cycle.
We still have some headroom to an average of $ 100,000, or an average of $ 288,000 if you follow the stock-to-flow X model. “
S2F refers to a statistical analysis model that studies the impact of scarcity on Bitcoin price. Critics argue that scarcity is not the only driver of price.