Bitcoin will experience three halves in this decade, the first in 2020, the second in 2024 and the third in 2028. If you count the halving in 2020 that took place last year, Bitcoin has a total of three halves since its introduction in 2009 experienced in the year after each halving, the Bitcoin price shoots exponentially due to increasing demand and lower supply in the market.
But there is a new type of demand in the market that is much heavier than the original demand from retail investors who have been buying for more than 12 years. This demand mixed with the decline in supply and the removal of BTC from the market is the perfect formula for wild price fluctuations. I’ll cover what this new demand is later in this article, but let’s first look at the halving performance so far to see what we’re up against.
The first ever halving took place on November 28, 2012, with the mining reward dropping from 50 to 25 BTC from the base start. 365 days before the halving, the Bitcoin price was $ 2.54. The following year, when the supply shock hit, Bitcoin soared as high as $ 1,007 before cooling off a bit, an increase of over 8,000%.
The second halving took place on July 16, 2016, when the mining reward was reduced from 25 to 12.5 BTC. 365 days before the halving, the Bitcoin price was $ 269.68. The following year, when the supply shock hit, Bitcoin soared as high as $ 2,506 before cooling off a bit, up 284%.
Bitcoin halved for the third time took place on May 18, 2020, reducing the mining reward from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. 365 days before the halving, Bitcoin was priced at $ 7,300. The following year, when the supply shock hit, Bitcoin rose to $ 64,840, up 788%.
At the time of writing, it is estimated that Bitcoin will go through its fourth halving on May 8, 2024 and the mining reward will drop from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. And sometime in the spring of 2028, Bitcoin will go through its fifth halving, lowering the mining reward from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC.
It is impossible to predict the exact demand for Bitcoin. Therefore, it is difficult to predict how much the price will rise after these halving, but it can be assumed that the price outlook is mega bullish and the next nine years could look something like this (or better):
“B-b-b-but Nik, past performance does not guarantee future price gains!”
While this is true, it ignores any factors that will cause Bitcoin to continue skyrocketing. The world has a store of value problem, and the free market has identified Bitcoin as the solution to that problem. Bitcoin is now inundated with wealth, and it is poised to be the top performing asset of the decade for the second decade in a row.
Bitcoin’s limited supply of 21 million, combined with increasing demand, ensures that the price will continue to rise.
As I mentioned earlier, it’s no longer just ordinary people buying and HODLing that has caused huge price fluctuations in the past. Now billionaires and corporations are putting it on their balance sheets and countries are making it legal tender. This is a global race to amass as much BTC as possible. They don’t make more than 21 million, and everyone wants their piece of the pie.
The first domino has fallen, and game theory is even tougher than it has been since El Salvador was the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. Ready, set, go – all countries are now in a race to introduce Bitcoin as legal tender and include it on their balance sheets. In the law passed in El Salvador, merchants must accept Bitcoin as a means of payment. This means that big companies there have to learn and use bitcoin on a daily basis which, after seeing the many benefits of BTC, could lead them to use bitcoin in other countries like the US …
Some countries are already feeling the stress of not having introduced Bitcoin, and the more they adopt it will only make others want it more. Gabriel Silva, Member of the Panamanian Parliament, said: “This is important. And Panama cannot be left behind. If we want to be a true technology and business location, we have to support cryptocurrencies. We are going to prepare a proposal for the meeting. If you are interested in building it, you can contact me. “
Every single country on planet earth that has not adopted a Bitcoin standard is falling behind those who do. Bitcoiners have all the wealth and countries will want our business. Countries will give the country tax breaks, citizenship, state-owned land for new housing developments, bitcoin mining incentives, etc.
“We want Bitcoiners to move here,” said the President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele. Soon the leaders of each country will be saying these words. Those who say it first will be the biggest winners.
This will lead to a massive wealth inflow into Bitcoin like we’ve never seen before. The world is being reevaluated in Bitcoin. You and I already know this, but the rest of the world has yet to find out.
This is a guest post by Nik Hoffmann. The opinions expressed are solely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC, Inc. Bitcoin magazine.